百家争鸣
謝田文集
[主页]->[百家争鸣]->[謝田文集]->[Black Swan or Red Dragon ]
謝田文集
·中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(二)
·中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(三)
· 中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(四)
·中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(五)
·中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(六)
·中国经济怎么沦落到了今天(七)
·中国房地产政府不说的秘密(上)
·中国房地产 政府不说的秘密(中)
· 中国房地产政府不说的秘密(下)
·哈佛教授估量中国社会火山(上)
·哈佛教授估量中国社会火山(下)
·中国富人的机会可能不多了
·金砖银行该申请成世行分行
·荷兰人的尊严和荷兰的商船
·中国和纳粹德国经济的对比(上)
·中共为何突然要对外企翻脸?
·中国和纳粹德国经济的对比(下)
·亚马逊进中国:丛林陷入丛林
·马克思的诅咒正在中国实现
·阿里巴巴的中美双重紧箍咒
·中共的国师们在预示着什么?
·《西方对中国的误读》的误读
·新冷战的辩论居然剑指中共
·离心离德的中共中央和地方
·90高龄的卡特总统太糊涂
·占中财阀对民主?克鲁曼差矣
·美日QE之进退对中国的影响
·北京推动亚太自贸为啥没戏?
·世贸组织即将寿终正寝了吗?
·战略管理案例趣闻:陆地鲨鱼
·評點國務院參事的錦囊妙計
·世界石油戰中的陰謀和陽謀
·世界石油戰中的陰謀和陽謀
·世界石油戰中的陰謀和陽謀
·中国经济新常态恐怕是旧的
·俄罗斯的式微和中共的服软
·百年商业智慧的创新和陷阱
·中共窃取军事科技为何难成
·奥巴马的国情咨文剑指中共
·西方的教科书有多么的可怕
·世界在丢失中国传统的美德
·中共会主动进攻美国卫星吗?
·中国整合大型国企危害百姓
·奧古斯塔的直言和忍的體悟
·五百
·中共的亞投行注定竹籃打水
·六藝之射與中國經濟的不歸
·法國電影《露西》的玄學啟示
·中国信托业刚性兑付的怪圈
·谢田:美国象牙塔内的三个小故事
·商界的卡迪拉克和罗罗难题
·世界中国学论坛的矛盾讯号
·IMF的特别提款权不很值钱
·回国创业回美坐牢的教授们
·中共政协委员为何敢这样说
·善德与巨富—金钱是从哪来的(一)
·善德与巨富 —金钱是从哪来的(二)
·善德与巨富 —金钱是从哪来的(三)
·善德与巨富—金钱是从哪来的(四)
·善德与巨富—金钱是从哪来的(五)
·善德与巨富 —金钱是从哪来的(六)
·善德与巨富 —金钱是从哪来的(七)
·善德与巨富—金钱是从哪来的(八)
·善德与巨富—金钱是从哪来的(九)
·背离韬光养晦的中国很危险
·三访台湾:家的感觉越来越强
·三访台湾:金门的炮弹和钢刀
·三訪臺灣:從中研院到區公所
·中共阅兵的心理战战术分析(上)
·中共阅兵的心理战战术分析(中)
·中共阅兵的心理战战术分析(下)
·习奥在兑现杜鲁门的预言吗?
·TPP:经济中国剥离中共之始(一)
·TPP:经济中国剥离中共之始(二)
·TPP: 经济中国剥离中共之始(三)
·TPP: 经济中国剥离中共之始(四)
·中国大飞机背后的忧患心理
·当中国的COE或CEO的难度
·财政部和发改委为何不同步
·诺斯理论为何在中国不能用
·中国人民币入篮是双刃之剑(上)
·中国人民币入篮是双刃之剑(下)
·中共能让七千万人都脱贫吗
·香港纪行:思忖还神几百万人
·熔断机制加剧中国股市的颓势
·浅议红二代的人心向背之论
·中国人为什么很难气定神闲(上)
·中国人为什么很难气定神闲(中)
·中国人为什么很难气定神闲(下)
·插入共产国心脏的美军基地
·川普经济政策击中中共软肋
·房地产最后的疯狂逼近中国
·人类社会面临颠覆性的巨变
·央行救急突显中共治国无力
·美国南方的甜茶和冰茶文化
·大卫‧萨尔纳的《人类贪婪史》
·格查蓝‧达斯的《做好人之难》(上)
·格查蓝‧达斯的《做好人之难》(下)
·川普外交政策再击中共软肋
·中共会顿灭还是渐灭的思辨(上)
·中共会顿灭还是渐灭的思辨(下)
[列出本栏目所有内容]
欢迎在此做广告
Black Swan or Red Dragon

Black Swan or Red Dragon

   By Frank Tian Xie |

   October 19, 2016 AT 2:53 AM

   Black Swans in Taiwan. (Jiayi Wang/Epoch Times)

   A couple of weeks ago, a Canadian reporter from Vancouver asked me a question about the black swans that seem to be emerging all over the place at an alarming rate, for example, as she said, the Brexit, the bombing in France, a Trump in the White House, Fed interest rate hike in December, Deutsche Bank crisis, and large scale terror attacks, to name a few. But, if there are many, many black swans appearing, by definition, they should not be called “black swan” anymore, as black swan is supposed to be rare, unusual, and consequential events that occur not too often. Well, we as humanity are in fact in an unusually precarious and delicate situation today, and the old rule about the black swan may just be broken as we speak.

   As someone with Geology training as an undergraduate student, I would think a potential super quake in south Asia as a black swan, as warned by scientists from Columbia University. They found evidence that a super earthquake is being shaped up underground in Bangladeshi, a country with extremely high population density. There is not much seismic data from that region of the globe, so scientist could not give a time window for it to take place. But, if it does take place, it is going to be an 8.2 to 9 quake on Richter scale and 140 million people might be affected!

   Black swan or Black swan theory was first used to describe as a metaphor, a simile, or a hint on an event that takes place all of a sudden and has tremendous impact, that people become aware of it often in hindsight. Because in the West in ancient times, people thought all swans were with white feathers, and black ones nonexistent. Then in 1697, after the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh spotted a black swan in Western Australia, the theory took on a new explanation, denoting something highly unlikely but not at all impossible.

   Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of the black swan theory, he defined it as having the “The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology”, and “The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

   In 2007, Taleb first used the term to describe unexpected events in the financial world, and then extended it to describe new discoveries in science and breakthroughs in arts, etc. The emergence of the Internet, personal computer, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand before World War I, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the death of Alexander the Great, the arrival of the Europeans to Aztecs, the sinking of the “unsinkable” Titanic, and the 911 attack on twin towers in New York City, are all considered by Taleb to be examples of black swan.

   Taleb’s definition of a “black swan” event has three components: first, it’s an exception, beyond the expectation of people, and there is no past event that can substantiate its occurrence in a convincing way. Second, it has huge and extremely important impact. And thirdly, even though it is an exception, people seem to be able to give quite plausible explanations in hindsight, making it look like something that can be explained and even predicted.

   If, by the definition and observation of Taleb, that the collapse of the Soviet Union can be considered a black swan, then what about the collapse or disintegration of the Chinese Communist Party?! It must also be remarked as an even larger, more important, and more profound black swan event for humanity. This is so because the CCP is the last major link in the international communist movement, and CCP is also the largest in party membership among all communist and socialist states in the world. As the last and final communist regime in human history, the CCP has viciously and brutally endangered and massacred 70 million Chinese people in its 60 some years of history, more than the casualties of both world wars combined, so when this terror regime is disintegrated or disappears, its impact on China is bound to be unparalleled, and its impact to the world is also unprecedented. This would indeed be a global, planetary class of “black swan”!

   Interestingly, such a global scale black swan event is actually predicted and foretold by some, so the whole event is already progressing toward completion as we speak and under the watchful eyes of the world. So when this black swan, or rather, the red dragon, as the Chinese Communist is often described, becomes a reality and the disintegration of CCP comes into fruition, people on earth will have not only hindsight on the event, but also a lot of foresight as well!

   “Disintegration of CCP” comply completely with the three characteristics of Taleb’s definition of black swan. First, it is unprecedented and exceptional. Even outside of China, some doubt it could eventually happen. The Chinese Communist survived devastating blows to its very existence many times in history, and it subsisted till today, so there is no past incidence that could indicate the probability of its disintegration in an absolutely convincing way. Second, “Disintegration of CCP” could have huge, tremendous impact to the people of China and the world, because of the population of the country and its political and economic ties with the rest of the world. Thirdly, even though the “Disintegration of CCP” is an exception, but surely people could in hindsight give various explanations about its occurrence, rendering it explainable and predictable. For example, political scientists of future generations could attest that years before the CCP collapsed, there was the Tuidang movement (quit CCP and its affiliated organizations) that was similar to what happened to Soviet Communist just before its collapse, and that the Chinese regime is losing control and decaying in all aspects of the society: politically, economically, socially, and environmentally.

   Taleb pointed out in the third edition of his book that the occurrence of black swan has something do to with the observer. For example, to a turkey and its butcher, the disastrous black swan event for the turkey is not even a surprise to the butcher! So the solution to this problem? Don’t be the turkey. Or, you can find the weakest and most vulnerable part of yourself and change yourself from bad luck, damaging black swan to a beautiful, benevolent white swan! Fascinatingly in China today, as the Tuidang movement continues and as the party is losing its control over the vast country and resentment from the masses becomes ever snowballing, the same can be applied as well and Chinese black swan or red dragon event is also observer specific. What is a black swan to the ruling Communist regime may be a white swan to the people!

   The main conclusion from Taleb’s approach was not to attempt to predict black swan evets, but rather distinguish between the positive and negative outcomes of black swan, so people could build a solid foundation to deal with those potential, negative impacts of the event; or, we could prepare in advance and take advantage of the positive impacts of the event. Of the possible events that Taleb mentioned, one is the inability of Western banking system to deal with potential disaster. As well, Taleb also questions the presumptuous statistical model, the normal distribution, in risk management.

   People with imagination or foresight have thought of many future black swans, such as an alien attack on the Earth, GMO killing and disfiguring human beings, and mini black holes created by hadron colliders by mad scientists of Europe, etc. Of course, in the author’s opinion, the most pertinent black swan to our life today, is the red dragon in the biblical term being slain and smashed in China! So in light of that and most importantly, we should all ask ourselves the question, are we ready to embrace the upcoming black swan/red dragon event of a communism-free era? Or, have we built a solid foundation to deal with the upcoming changes in our world?

[下一页]
blog comments powered by Disqus

©Boxun News Network All Rights Reserved.
所有栏目和文章由作者或专栏管理员整理制作,均不代表博讯立场