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陈奎德作品选编
·近代宪政的演化(19)英国宪政在十九世纪的进化
·近代宪政的演化(20)多党制在美国
·近代宪政的演化(21)十九世纪的西方政党政治
·近代宪政的演化(22)十九世纪法国民主道路的曲折历程
·近代宪政的演化(23)日尔曼民族十九世纪的政治发展
·近代宪政的演化(24)其它欧洲国家的民主实验
·近代宪政的演化(25)社会主义思想在19世纪欧洲的兴起
·近代宪政的演化(26)日本的明治维新
·近代宪政的演化(27)中国对西方的初步反应——洋务(自强)运动的背景
·近代宪政的演化(28)中国洋务(自强)运动的失败
·近代宪政的演化(29)中国的改制:戊戌变法的兴起
·近代宪政的演化(30)百日维新及其失败
·近代宪政的演化(31)戊戌失败后的宪政改革--晚清新政
·近代宪政的演化(32)晚清新政的内容
·近代宪政的演化(33)中国的保路运动与武昌起义
·近代宪政的演化(34)民国初年民主宪政的尝试
·近代宪政的演化(35)袁世凯称帝及其失败
·近代宪政的演化(36)民初中国社会发展
·近代宪政的演化(37)马克思主义与俄国革命
·近代宪政的演化(38)中国的五四新文化运动
·近代宪政的演化(39)五四与中国现代民族主义的兴起
·近代宪政的演化(40)中国国民革命与南京政府
·近代宪政的演化(41)五四之后中国关于民主与独裁的辩论
·近代宪政的演化(42)法西斯主义产生的背景
·近代宪政的演化(43)希特勒与德国纳粹的兴起
·近代宪政的演化(44)日本侵华战争
·近代宪政的演化(45)民主对法西斯的世界大战
·近代宪政的演化(46)战后秩序和冷战的肇始
·近代宪政的演化(47)二战后中国的宪政实验
·近代宪政的演化(48)国共谈判破裂与中国内战爆发
·近代宪政的演化(49)战后日本的民主建设
·近代宪政的演化(50)战后德国重建、
·近代宪政的演化(51)柏林危机(1948-1949)
·近代宪政的演化(52)战后中国内战
·近代宪政的演化(53)朝鲜战争
·近代宪政的演化(54)中国“党-国”体制的形成
·近代宪政的演化(55)中国大陆的土地改革
·近代宪政的演化(56)中共的镇反运动
·近代宪政的演化(57)三反五反运动在中国
·近代宪政的演化(58)共产党在中国知识界的洗脑运动
·近代宪政的演化(59)赫鲁晓夫的非斯大林化运动
·近代宪政的演化(60)1956年匈牙利革命
·近代宪政的演化(61)中共的反右派运动
·近代宪政的演化(62)毛的乌托邦及其失败
·近代宪政的演化(63)中共文化大革命的开始
·近代宪政的演化(64)文化大革命的进程
近代宪政的演化(65)-(105)
·近代宪政的演化(65)1976年「四.五」天安门运动与文革结束
·近代宪政的演化(66)二十世纪六十年代后非社会主义国家的自由民主趋势
·近代宪政的演化(67)布拉格之春——社会主义国家的自由民主尝试
·近代宪政的演化(68)毛时代的结束与中国民主浪潮的兴起
·近代宪政的演化(69)波兰的团结工会运动
·近代宪政的演化(70)八十年代苏联的变迁
·近代宪政的演化(71)台湾的宁静革命
·近代宪政的演化(72)当代菲律宾的民主转型
·近代宪政的演化(73)南韩转向民主
·近代宪政的演化(74)中国大陆在八十年代的经济改革
·近代宪政的演化(75)中国八十年代的政治风云
·近代宪政的演化(76)中国八十年代的社会和文化变迁
·近代宪政的演化(77)一九八九年中国天安门事变
·近代宪政的演化(78)柏林墙的倒塌
·近代宪政的演化(79) 波、匈、捷的民主转型
·近代宪政的演化(80)罗马尼亚的民主革命
·近代宪政的演化(81)保加利亚、南斯拉夫的民主转型
·近代宪政的演化(82)风雨飘摇:戈尔巴乔夫后期的苏联
·近代宪政的演化(83)苏联解体,冷战结束
·近代宪政的演化(84)冷战后东欧的艰难转型
·近代宪政的演化(85)中共抗拒世界潮流
·近代宪政的演化(86)苏俄:艰难的转型
·近代宪政的演化(87)中共乞灵于民族主义
·近代宪政的演化(88)亚洲金融风暴与“亚洲价值论”的破产
·近代宪政的演化(89)1998:“北京小阳春”
·近代宪政的演化(90)金融危机的政治后果—— 印尼的民主化
·近代宪政的演化(91)人权高于主权——科索沃战争缔造新秩序
·近代宪政的演化(92)新千禧年十字路口的中国
·近代宪政的演化(93)世纪之交中国自由派与新左派之争(1)
·近代宪政的演化(94)世纪之交中国自由派与新左派之争(2)
·近代宪政的演化(95)世纪之交中国自由派与新左派之争(3)
·近代宪政的演化(96)“9.11”事件:历史的转折点
·近代宪政的演化(97)美国新保守主义的兴起(1)
·近代宪政的演化(98)新保守主义的兴起(2):伊拉克战争
·近代宪政的演化(99)美国新保守主义与共产中国(1)
·近代宪政的演化(100)美国新保守主义与共产中国(2)
·近代宪政的演化(101)左翼极权滑向右翼纳粹
·近代宪政的演化(102)胡温政权向毛主义摆动
· 近代宪政的演化(103)伊拉克战后民主进程
·近代宪政的演化(104)赵紫阳逝世与中国政局
·近代宪政的演化(105)近代宪政的演化结束语
《海耶克》
·《海耶克》目次
·《海耶克》 序
·第一章导言:二十世纪的先知
·第二章风华时代:维也纳—纽约—伦敦
·第三章风雨交加:《通向奴役的道路》①
·第四章赴美前後
·第五章《自由宪章》和《法律、立法与自由》
·第六章晚年总结:《致命的自负——社会主义的谬误》⑴
·第七章保守主义还是自由主义?
·海耶克生平年表
·海耶克的论著
·参考文献
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恭贺台湾 恭贺民主

台湾大选,尘埃落定。在野的国民党马英九先生当选总统。台湾成功完成了民主转型后第四次总统直选,同时,实现了第二次政党轮换。台湾的政党政治,已然成形。此次选举的理性平和,超出舆论预料,值得为台湾人浮一大白。

   从宏观历史的角度看,台湾这次选举,惊人地呈现了可持续的稳定的新兴民主政体发展的一般逻辑:

   第一波真正选举(1996),原威权统治政党余威犹存,影响仍大,因而赢得选举。既然原主宰性政党没有立即下台,社会避免了即刻的急剧震荡,为渐进转型赢得了时间与空间。

   第二波(2000,2004),在党禁报禁开放且已运作了充分时间之后,在野的反对党迅速壮大,原执政者的历史黑幕与伤疤被暴露于光天化日之下。威权老党名声扫地,终被取代,为其专制的历史付出代价。

   第三波(2008),原在野党上台后,擅长的街头政治和竞选方略顿无用武之地,已变身为执政党的原在野党,尚未完成从“反对”到“建设”的角色转换。对于执政,政治准备不足,管理经验不足,人才储备不足。掌权后,权力的腐化与傲慢,导致人性弱点呈现,政绩乏善可陈,民情思变,故被原执政老党取代。

   老话说:事不过三。台湾民主经此三波历练,已长大成人。台湾民主转型的故事,是可以写入世界政治史教科书的典型案例。

   在这次台湾选举中,令人印象最为深刻者有二:

   族群分裂,蓝绿仇恨,比较过去二十年,已经有所弱化。双方的国族认同,已逐渐接近。台湾民众的基本权利与福祉,在双方激烈竞争的逻辑驱迫下,被奉上高位。

   选战中出现的双方对于对手的人身攻击、抹黑战术甚至敏感时间出现的司法案件,对选情已不构成颠覆性影响。台湾选民对选战的戏剧性震荡,开始具备了心理免疫力,心态渐趋正常与成熟。

   虽然仍有不少缺陷,但是,放眼全球的以华人为主体的社会:中国大陆、台湾、香港乃至新加坡,不容置疑,台湾的民主发展独领风骚,走在最前列。

   台湾作为华人社会民主试验的示范,早已超出一岛范围之外,其活生生的制度冲击力,直指对岸的那一片广袤大陆。

   若再有谁说,基于国情与文化,华人圈不可能搞民主,那么,请看看台湾。若再有谁说,列宁主义式政党,不可能脱胎换骨转变为现代政党,那么,请看看台湾。

   国民党原本企图对人民训政,“训”好之后,再行宪政。然而,单向“训”人民的结果,只是使自己越训越威权,人民越训越民粹。然而,当后来国民党在内外夹击下,不得已开启宪政之路后,出乎意料,结果,整个社会开始自我训政,朝野双方相互训政。在宪政实施过程中,一步一步,训出了民主,训出了法治,训出了自由,训出了人权,训出了一个文明社会。

   如果用民主、自由、法治这三根普世标杆来衡量这四个华人社会,目前,台湾以其民主、自由领先,香港以其自由、法治自豪,新加坡以其法制自诩,中国大陆呢?三项均输,除了在社会和经济领域比毛时代多了几分有限的自由之外,余皆愧对世人,可谓长路漫漫。

   选举结束,我们注意到,民进党候选人谢长廷先生所表现出的政治家风范,他承担败选责任,声明:“这是我个人的挫折,不是台湾主体性的倒退,是民主的结果,不是民主的失败。…… 我们选举失败了,但是我们还有更重要的任务,就是祖先留下来的民主火种不能熄灭,我们要转希望为动力,守护台湾的民主。”

   同时,我们也注意到,当选总统马英九先生宣告:“执政之后的国民党,会从感恩出发,从谦卑做起,我们会努力的倾听人们的心声。”对于府院同党的总统超级大权而言,人所共知,“谦卑”几乎是不可能的任务。马先生自己亦说:“绝对权力易滋绝对腐败”。因此,人们必须察其言,观其行,制衡其权力运作。

   我们铭记在心的是,十八年来,年年岁岁,马先生为六四殉难者默哀。台湾同胞、大陆同胞、全世界都看到了马先生的这一动人姿态。人们拭目以待的是:这一仪式将持续还是终结?答案在不久后即可揭晓了

   要言之,对从政的马英九而言,今天是他政治生涯的顶峰。执政后,他必须做好准备——从顶峰下滑。倘若谨记谦卑,谨记责任,谨记承诺,谨记六四,将会使这一过程缓慢一些,和平一些。

   记得十六年前,笔者在访台后的一篇文章中写道:“漫长的中国历史上,恐怕任何想象力丰富的智者都不可能预料到一个远离中国大陆的边陲小岛——台湾,会对中国人的整体的生存方式,会对广袤的中国大陆产生重大而他深远的影响。 但是,这种可能性在今天出现了。是谓‘台湾奇迹’。”

   2008年的今天,我们期待的这一奇迹变得更加显豁,谨以此恭贺当选的马英九先生和萧万长先生。

Congratulations to Taiwan, and to Democracy

Chen Kuide

   Taiwan's general election is finished, and all is settled. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou has been elected President. Taiwan successfully completed its fourth presidential election since its transition to a democratic system, and at the same time has implemented its second change of ruling party. Taiwan's multi-party politics is now fully formed. This election was carried out in way that was peaceful and rational beyond expectations, and has earned Taiwan's people the respect and congratulations of the world.

   From a macroscopic historical perspective, this election in Taiwan impressively demonstrates the typical process in the emergence of a sustainable and stable democratic system:

   In the first genuine election (1996) the authoritarian ruling party remained strong and influential, and as a result was able to win the general election. Since the ruling party did not immediately fall from power, Taiwanese society avoided a sudden shock, and was given the time and space for a gradual transformation.

   In the second stage (2000, 2004), after political parties and news media had been released from previous restrictions for an adequate amount of time, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rapidly gained strength, and the historical wrongdoings of the ruling party were exposed to the stark light of day. The old authoritarian ruling party's reputation plunged, and it was ultimately replaced, paying the price of its autocratic past.

   In the third stage (2008), the former opposition DPP, now in power, found that its strengths in street politics and campaigning strategies were inadequate to its new role of ruling party, and it was unable to make a successful transformation from "opposition" to "construction." The party was inadequate to the task of rule in terms of its political preparation, management experience and the qualifications of its personnel. With the rise to power, corruption and arrogance exposed the human failings of the new leadership, disappointing public expectations and leading to the return to power of the former ruling party.

   There is an old saying that three is the magic number, and Taiwan's democratic path has passed through three stages in reaching maturity. The story of Taiwan's democratic transformation is a classic example that deserves to be recorded in the annals of world history.

   The recently concluded general election leaves two particularly deep impressions:

   The ethnic division between mainland immigrants and indigenous Taiwanese and the rancor of the Green-Blue party divide have weakened considerably in the course of the last 20 years. The sides have drawn gradually closer to a common national identity. The basic rights and welfare of the Taiwanese people have become a priority in the intense competition between the two sides.

   The mutual ad hominem attacks leveled by opponents during election campaigns, the mudslinging tactics and even court cases launched at sensitive times, have become counterproductive. The Taiwanese electorate has grown immune to the dramatic shock tactics of electoral campaigns, and has taken an increasingly mature attitude toward them.

   Although many flaws remain in the system, in the context of Chinese societies worldwide in mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, it is beyond question that Taiwan vastly leads the field in terms of its democratic development.

   In serving as a model of democratic experiment among Chinese societies, Taiwan long ago surpassed its island boundaries, with the impact of its lively system chiefly aimed at the vast continent across the Strait.

   If anyone attempts to say once more that the national conditions and culture of the Chinese people cannot sustain democracy, they must look at Taiwan. If anyone tries again to claim that a Leninist party cannot transform itself into a modern political party, they should look again at Taiwan.

   The KMT originally attempted political training of the people, expecting after the "training" to move on to constitutional government. Yet the result of "training" the people led to the party itself becoming more authoritarian, and the people becoming more populist. Later, when the KMT came under attack from within and without, and had no alternative but to set off on the road to constitutional government, the result, against all expectation, was that the entire society began its own political training, and the ruling and opposition parties began training each other. In the course of implementing constitutionalism , this training produced in turn democracy, rule of law, freedom, human rights and a civilized society.

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