百家争鸣
雷声
[主页]->[百家争鸣]->[雷声]->[华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由]
雷声
·抗战阵亡国军将军名单
·爆料:郭美美为王震孙女 !
·“从西方宪法历史的演变来看中国宪政发展的前路”
·1%的家庭占全国三分一财产
·罗思义:陈寅恪之死
·刑不上常委的规则应得到尊重
·因要求官员公开财产而关押人们
·腐败从贪污权力开始
·可放弃自己权不能剥别人权利
·揽权本身就为腐败敞开大门:讨论腐败从贪污权力开始
·你可以放弃自己的权利,但不能剥夺别人的权利
·吴敬琏:腐败的实质是权力寻租
·丁学良新作:印度比中国更有优势
·林大军:再次忽悠欺骗大陆民众,绝不为反腐唱赞歌
·張三斷言:習由強勢反腐走向更專政
·屠城家族窃国掠影
·謊言起家,謊言建政,謊言治港
·纪念抗战,蒋中正功盖青史
·準的可怕 43個簡化漢字的現實預兆
·中共三位“抗日”将军战死之迷 全是蒙人
·绝不允许后代再经历这样的痛苦
·陈事美:惊人的反土改预言
·陈事美:惊人的反土改预言
·扮萌装纯恬不知耻的红二代/陈维健
·中共没有抗击日本帝国
·奇葩文转帖:我在英國蹲監獄
·国内网友斥红二代扮萌装纯恬不知耻
·准备好了吗?中国将面临全线大衰退
·贪官与血统:红二代不贪?
·“普通话”的惊人内幕
·中共「推普废粤」的政治动机
·ISIS首领与马恩列斯并列
·毛泽东的私生活
·香港学生罢课,要求人大道歉
·六四精神之炬被香港学子高高擎起
·梁粉李小姐转向称会考虑占中
·梁粉李小姐转向称会考虑占中
·梁粉李小姐转向称会考虑占中
·电视剧《邓小平》隐瞒哪些史实?/程凯
·今夜,我们为香港人民自豪!
·一个地主孙的血泪成长史
·香港民主示威对习近平构成挑战
·港台學潮與世代正義(洪鑫誠)
·香港民主示威对习近平构成挑战
·习近平的字典里没有"妥协" 中国梦里也没有反对派
·BBC记者引警方消息:反占中有黑社会参与
·BBC记者引警方消息:反占中有黑社会参与
·法律窗口:美国如何看待和处理公民抗命
·抱紧自由,风雨中迎接光辉岁月
·寄希望派无中生有的“习民主”
·鲍彤盛赞占中:出色完成2个历史任务
·为什么香港人对民主的愿望越来越强
·习近平在香港的盲点/ 猷子
·《纽约太阳报》建议向香港“雨伞革命”领袖颁发诺贝尔和平奖
·权力中心总想垄断真理和道义/王德邦
·强势独裁是民主转型的拦路虎/严家伟
·北美崔哥挺港警热传文造假穿帮了 被揭的体无完肤
·北美崔哥挺港警热传文造假穿帮了 被揭的体无完肤
·曹子文给邓榕邓楠的公开信
·林彪最大污点:长春围城饿毙数十万难民
·喂人民服雾【天津快板】
·广西政协常委装妈与学生对话
·两万八路军不敌5百日军?
·香港“雨伞革命”中学生组图
·反占中蓝丝带召集人李偲嫣 妓女身份被揭
·真假依法治国,四中全会检验
·真假依法治国,四中全会"验尿"
·方舟子打假周小平:梦里游了趟美国便控诉美国罪恶
·试看整人者,人亦整其人
·指鹿为马的时代
·网络作家抽周带鱼,妙语连珠
·为什么左右全民群殴周小平
·周小平风波笑点何在?
·10年前捧红3位好学生今何在?
·习大大的锅
·世纪梦幻:习近平反腐出民主!/张三一言
·一个真实的蒋中正
·毛颂蒋之信隐瞒七十年
·为什么现在要讲法治了
·中华民国总统有权对香港大陆说三道四
·陕西失独父母到省政府请愿
·刘少奇的结局
·法轮功围堵中南海导致政改夭折/周瑞金
·“做二”之道关键在韬光养晦
·从小官巨贪到老虎苍蝇标准
·列宁真相被揭,俄各阶层震惊和愤怒
·voa:习近平专机惊爆象牙走私,有何背景?
·法治的主要任务不是治官
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·彭定康忧香港出现伊朗式民主(即假普选)
·章小舟:基于“民意分类”视角观察“习氏反腐”等现象
·恢复国民党的反对党精神/陈永苗
·李克强接见12家草根组织负责人
·香港占中升级为南韩模​式/谢选骏
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·绝食学生促特首重启政改展开对话
·反腐变围剿政敌,廉政排名下降
[列出本栏目所有内容]
欢迎在此做广告
华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由

转贴者按语:最近外媒开始热议中国崩溃的问题。对此,魏京生表示:“未来中国的政治竞争,就在于争夺民心;就在于谁能表现出真正走向民主,而不是拿民主的口号忽悠人。”
   
   
   
   

   《华尔街日报》:共产党即将分崩离析的五大理由
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   美國喬治華盛頓大學國際事務學院教授、中國政策研究項目主任沈大偉(David Shambaugh),今日在《華爾街日報》撰文,表示中國國家主席習近平極力阻止自己成為中國的戈爾巴喬夫,讓中國像蘇聯一樣解體。然而,習近平執意集大權於一身,反而讓共產黨一步步邁向分崩離析。
   
   
   
   沈大偉承認,過往估計中國共產黨必將倒台的「中國通」們,都因為他們的失算影響他們的學術聲譽。然而,他現在確信中國共產黨的「終局」(endgame)已經展開。他不知道結局會是如何,但有可能相當混亂與暴力,亦不排除習近平會在政治鬥爭或軍事政變中下台。習近平現在的「反腐工作」帶有攻擊性,是這個外強中乾的政黨所不能承受的。
   
   
   
   他表示,中共政權最少有五大結構弱點。首先,中國的經濟精英們已經至少把他們的一隻腳伸到中國門外,只要中國一崩潰便能馬上離開。他引述上海胡潤研究中心的調查,有64%的中國富人已經移民或正計劃移民,並正大肆在海外產子、購買資產。另一方面,絕大部分的富人,都把他們的子女送到外國讀書。這些富人根本對中國的未來沒有信心。
   
   
   
   第二,習近平自上任以來一直加強對媒體、網絡、電影、藝術、宗教及少數民族等的箝制。中央政府更向各大院校頒下了所謂「七不講」指引,不能在校園內談論西方的普世價值,包括憲政民主、公民社會及新聞自由等。沈大偉認為一個穩定而有信心的政府,不會作出如此嚴厲的鎮壓,這些政策是政權內心深處虛怯不安的病徵。
   
   
   
   第三,他認為中共的教條式口號、「黨八股」已經完全失去號召力。他上年夏天出席了一個附屬於共產黨的中國智庫會議會議探討什麼是習近平提出的「中國夢」。然而,他形容連這些政黨學者都表現出目無表情、毫無興趣,沉悶非常。另一方面,習近平的著作在大學書店即使是免費贈送亦乏人問津,可見人民對黨理念再無幻想。
   
   
   
   第四,習近平的打貪縱使雷厲風行,卻沒有針對一黨專政、朋黨網絡、欠缺透明、法治及媒體監察這些貪腐的真正根源。因此,打貪只是政治鬥爭的工具,大部分都是針對黨內大老前、國家主席江澤民的門生及盟友。然而,習近平本人在黨內卻不見有忠實的盟友。
   
   
   
   最後,中國的經濟前景未容樂觀,而對國家企業的改革將牽涉大量利益衝突,舉步維艱,令中國難以真正轉型為有創意、能發展高科技的知識型經濟。以上這些問題,全部都需要政治改革才能解決,包括放鬆政治控制。如果習近平在這個亟需改革的情況下一意孤行,他們恐怕將需面對他們極力迴避的結局。
   
   
   
   對於有人認為習近平在靖內難後將變得開放,沈大偉對此不敢苟同。他認為習近平視政治為「零和遊戲」,認為放寬政治管制就是向敵人讓了一步,就是對黨的打擊。這一點,從中國處處暗示美國正積極推翻共產黨便可見一斑,毫無證據顯示改革就近在咫尺。
   
   
   
   The Coming Chinese Crackup
   
   
   
   The endgame of communist rule in China has begun, and Xi Jinping’s ruthless measures are only bringing the country closer to a breaking point
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   Chinese President Xi Jinping, front center, and other Chinese leaders attend the opening meeting on Thursday of the third session of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
   
   
   
   By
   
   
   
   DAVID SHAMBAUGH
   
   
   
   March 6, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
   
   
   
   245 COMMENTS
   
   
   
   On Thursday, the National People’s Congress convened in Beijing in what has become a familiar annual ritual. Some 3,000 “elected” delegates from all over the country—ranging from colorfully clad ethnic minorities to urbane billionaires—will meet for a week to discuss the state of the nation and to engage in the pretense of political participation.
   
   
   
   Some see this impressive gathering as a sign of the strength of the Chinese political system—but it masks serious weaknesses. Chinese politics has always had a theatrical veneer, with staged events like the congress intended to project the power and stability of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. Officials and citizens alike know that they are supposed to conform to these rituals, participating cheerfully and parroting back official slogans. This behavior is known in Chinese as biaotai, “declaring where one stands,” but it is little more than an act of symbolic compliance.
   
   
   
   
   RELATED READING
   
   
   
   · China’s New Boss
   
   
   
   · Will China Crush the Hong Kong Protests?
   
   
   
   Despite appearances, China’s political system is badly broken, and nobody knows it better than the Communist Party itself. China’s strongman leader,Xi Jinping , is hoping that a crackdown on dissent and corruption will shore up the party’s rule. He is determined to avoid becoming the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, presiding over the party’s collapse. But instead of being the antithesis of Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Xi may well wind up having the same effect. His despotism is severely stressing China’s system and society—and bringing it closer to a breaking point.
   
   
   
   Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business. Few Western experts forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union before it occurred in 1991; the CIA missed it entirely. The downfall of Eastern Europe’s communist states two years earlier was similarly scorned as the wishful thinking of anticommunists—until it happened. The post-Soviet “color revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005, as well as the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, all burst forth unanticipated.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   The Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, the site of pro-democracy demonstrations in 1989. PHOTO: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC/GETTY IMAGES
   
   
   
   China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime’s near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP rule was inevitable. Others were more cautious—myself included. But times change in China, and so must our analyses.
   
   
   
   Advertisement
   
   
   
   The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don’t know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. But until the system begins to unravel in some obvious way, those inside of it will play along—thus contributing to the facade of stability.
   
   
   
   Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. A single event is unlikely to trigger a peaceful implosion of the regime. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d’état. With his aggressive anticorruption campaign—a focus of this week’s National People’s Congress—he is overplaying a weak hand and deeply aggravating key party, state, military and commercial constituencies.
   
   
   
   The Chinese have a proverb, waiying, neiruan—hard on the outside, soft on the inside. Mr. Xi is a genuinely tough ruler. He exudes conviction and personal confidence. But this hard personality belies a party and political system that is extremely fragile on the inside.
   
   
   
   Consider five telling indications of the regime’s vulnerability and the party’s systemic weaknesses.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   A military band conductor during the opening session of the National People’s Congress on Thursday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
   
   
   
   First, China’s economic elites have one foot out the door, and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble. In 2014, Shanghai’s Hurun Research Institute, which studies China’s wealthy, found that 64% of the “high net worth individuals” whom it polled—393 millionaires and billionaires—were either emigrating or planning to do so. Rich Chinese are sending their children to study abroad in record numbers (in itself, an indictment of the quality of the Chinese higher-education system).
   
   
   
   Just this week, the Journal reported, federal agents searched several Southern California locations that U.S. authorities allege are linked to “multimillion-dollar birth-tourism businesses that enabled thousands of Chinese women to travel here and return home with infants born as U.S. citizens.” Wealthy Chinese are also buying property abroad at record levels and prices, and they are parking their financial assets overseas, often in well-shielded tax havens and shell companies.
   
   
   
   Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to extradite back to China a large number of alleged financial fugitives living abroad. When a country’s elites—many of them party members—flee in such large numbers, it is a telling sign of lack of confidence in the regime and the country’s future.

[下一页]
blog comments powered by Disqus
blog comments powered by Disqus

©Boxun News Network All Rights Reserved.
所有栏目和文章由作者或专栏管理员整理制作,均不代表博讯立场