百家争鸣
雷声
[主页]->[百家争鸣]->[雷声]->[华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由]
雷声
·利比亚大选告诉世界:少拿亡国吓唬人
·毛贼洞自己称自己“万岁”
·带路党人小史
·带路党人小史
·谁是中国近代史上最伟大的思想家(转帖马悲鸣一家之言)
·邓银超日记揭毛贼洞部分嘴脸
·“尊重少数人民”隐含着“协商民主”
·租界真相,欺骗了多少天真的爱国青年
·毛贼东是中国最大汉奸!
·徐向前揭露毛贼东诬陷张国焘
·中国国情最新数据
·抄家 红卫兵共抄走428亿人民币118万两黄金
·张闻天秘书:韩战结束才三年,毛泽东就承认中国出兵是错误的
·为什么多数犹太人“左倾”?
·我们不是小白鼠——驳“毛泽东是探索者”/ 胡平
·老骗子毛贼东的女儿也会骗人
·蒋公邻居和胡邻居的不同结果
·毛贼东害了自己儿子性命
·骇人听闻性酷刑,土改残酷历史
·血腥的土改:惨绝人寰
·毛泽东是暴君这一结论不可改变
·共军绑架地主女儿在战争中冲锋
·还有什么跟着蒋公去了台湾?
·大跃进前后的社会控制
·贪官找到藏钱好地方:离岸金融中心
·贪官找到藏钱好地方:离岸金融中心
·贪官找到藏钱好地方:离岸金融中心
·不孝之子,流氓丈夫
·潘汉年与日伪特工总部
·胡适的学生吴晗被迫害致死,家破人亡 请看博讯热点:文革四十周年 (博讯北
·迫害地主违反哪项国际条约?
·毛泽东最后遗言曝光
·乌克兰推到列宁像,权贵逃跑倒戈
·关于文革的一次口述史访谈
·陈公博的自白书
·乌克兰防暴警察齐刷刷下跪道歉
·《中苏友好同盟特别协定》
·东陵大盗--八路军冀东军区
·真实的蒋宋孔陈财产情况
·荣树堂(北京)口述“土改”
·这一份长长的充满血腥气味的名单——屠杀的都是民族的精英
·裴毅然:一千八百万知青下乡真相
·各种慢性病井喷 中国人又成“东亚病夫”
·克里米亚公投结果系伪造
·吴廷易(四川)口述“土改”
·“安全岛”不宜轻言拆除
·蒙古公投的翻版----克里米亚
·马克思是奥警方的领赏告密者
·預言清朝滅亡:曾國藩和幕僚秘談錄
·国民革命军第七十四军军歌
·斯大林屠杀30万远东中国人
·“常委安全岛”不宜轻言拆除
·“常委安全岛”与政治诚信
·从“广场大妈舞”看文革流毒
·我们从小孩时就被教怎么说谎
·参加诺曼底登陆的国军52军
·越南政府听从民意不办亚运
·郑义:为唐生智辩诬兼及日本文化中的毒素
·美总统称日美安保条约含钓鱼岛
·美总统称日美安保条约含钓鱼岛
·奥巴马和李源潮对曼德拉的不同悼念/胡少江
·曾节明:毛共定都北平类同满清,中国今后必然迁都
·蒋公文集(1)
·蒋公文集(2)
·蒋公文集(2)
·蒋公文集(3)
·蒋公文集(4)
·蒋公文集(5)
·中纪委权力扩张已成党中之党
·毛泽东与米高扬密谈内容解密
·龙云投共后的结局
·嚴祖佑: 相濡无沫——父亲严独鹤的最后岁月
·大跃进期间人相食现象一瞥
·蒋公两份遗嘱曝光
·土改运动中的地主女眷/陶渭熊
·前记者揭64火烧装甲车系栽赃
·越南官媒首次纪念六四25周年
·陶铸老婆谈早期中共成员的男女关系
·中国高层罕见批评调水工程
·陈事美:张志新冤案中的新秘密
·奇闻:三庙合并,和尚尼姑同住
·陈秉安: 62年逃港大纪实
·法西斯=一切听从领袖指挥:金三像不像?
·受共产国际操纵的红色文化战线
·贺龙下令活埋东北抗日青年
·余杰:谁是手上没有沾满鲜血的人?--读陈永发《延安的阴影》
·彭小明:约法八章的骗局--中国的卡廷惨案
·触目惊心的杀人运动
·震撼人心的百万港人大游行
·香港人民真伟大!
·腐败寄生于过度扩张的国家公权力
·七一从高空看百万港人大游行
·香港占中被捕人士部分名单
·毛贼东女性朋友不完全名册
·南京将国军抗战老兵纳保障范围
·抗战阵亡国军将军名单
·爆料:郭美美为王震孙女 !
·“从西方宪法历史的演变来看中国宪政发展的前路”
·1%的家庭占全国三分一财产
·罗思义:陈寅恪之死
·刑不上常委的规则应得到尊重
[列出本栏目所有内容]
欢迎在此做广告
华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由

转贴者按语:最近外媒开始热议中国崩溃的问题。对此,魏京生表示:“未来中国的政治竞争,就在于争夺民心;就在于谁能表现出真正走向民主,而不是拿民主的口号忽悠人。”
   
   
   
   

   《华尔街日报》:共产党即将分崩离析的五大理由
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   美國喬治華盛頓大學國際事務學院教授、中國政策研究項目主任沈大偉(David Shambaugh),今日在《華爾街日報》撰文,表示中國國家主席習近平極力阻止自己成為中國的戈爾巴喬夫,讓中國像蘇聯一樣解體。然而,習近平執意集大權於一身,反而讓共產黨一步步邁向分崩離析。
   
   
   
   沈大偉承認,過往估計中國共產黨必將倒台的「中國通」們,都因為他們的失算影響他們的學術聲譽。然而,他現在確信中國共產黨的「終局」(endgame)已經展開。他不知道結局會是如何,但有可能相當混亂與暴力,亦不排除習近平會在政治鬥爭或軍事政變中下台。習近平現在的「反腐工作」帶有攻擊性,是這個外強中乾的政黨所不能承受的。
   
   
   
   他表示,中共政權最少有五大結構弱點。首先,中國的經濟精英們已經至少把他們的一隻腳伸到中國門外,只要中國一崩潰便能馬上離開。他引述上海胡潤研究中心的調查,有64%的中國富人已經移民或正計劃移民,並正大肆在海外產子、購買資產。另一方面,絕大部分的富人,都把他們的子女送到外國讀書。這些富人根本對中國的未來沒有信心。
   
   
   
   第二,習近平自上任以來一直加強對媒體、網絡、電影、藝術、宗教及少數民族等的箝制。中央政府更向各大院校頒下了所謂「七不講」指引,不能在校園內談論西方的普世價值,包括憲政民主、公民社會及新聞自由等。沈大偉認為一個穩定而有信心的政府,不會作出如此嚴厲的鎮壓,這些政策是政權內心深處虛怯不安的病徵。
   
   
   
   第三,他認為中共的教條式口號、「黨八股」已經完全失去號召力。他上年夏天出席了一個附屬於共產黨的中國智庫會議會議探討什麼是習近平提出的「中國夢」。然而,他形容連這些政黨學者都表現出目無表情、毫無興趣,沉悶非常。另一方面,習近平的著作在大學書店即使是免費贈送亦乏人問津,可見人民對黨理念再無幻想。
   
   
   
   第四,習近平的打貪縱使雷厲風行,卻沒有針對一黨專政、朋黨網絡、欠缺透明、法治及媒體監察這些貪腐的真正根源。因此,打貪只是政治鬥爭的工具,大部分都是針對黨內大老前、國家主席江澤民的門生及盟友。然而,習近平本人在黨內卻不見有忠實的盟友。
   
   
   
   最後,中國的經濟前景未容樂觀,而對國家企業的改革將牽涉大量利益衝突,舉步維艱,令中國難以真正轉型為有創意、能發展高科技的知識型經濟。以上這些問題,全部都需要政治改革才能解決,包括放鬆政治控制。如果習近平在這個亟需改革的情況下一意孤行,他們恐怕將需面對他們極力迴避的結局。
   
   
   
   對於有人認為習近平在靖內難後將變得開放,沈大偉對此不敢苟同。他認為習近平視政治為「零和遊戲」,認為放寬政治管制就是向敵人讓了一步,就是對黨的打擊。這一點,從中國處處暗示美國正積極推翻共產黨便可見一斑,毫無證據顯示改革就近在咫尺。
   
   
   
   The Coming Chinese Crackup
   
   
   
   The endgame of communist rule in China has begun, and Xi Jinping’s ruthless measures are only bringing the country closer to a breaking point
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   Chinese President Xi Jinping, front center, and other Chinese leaders attend the opening meeting on Thursday of the third session of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
   
   
   
   By
   
   
   
   DAVID SHAMBAUGH
   
   
   
   March 6, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
   
   
   
   245 COMMENTS
   
   
   
   On Thursday, the National People’s Congress convened in Beijing in what has become a familiar annual ritual. Some 3,000 “elected” delegates from all over the country—ranging from colorfully clad ethnic minorities to urbane billionaires—will meet for a week to discuss the state of the nation and to engage in the pretense of political participation.
   
   
   
   Some see this impressive gathering as a sign of the strength of the Chinese political system—but it masks serious weaknesses. Chinese politics has always had a theatrical veneer, with staged events like the congress intended to project the power and stability of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. Officials and citizens alike know that they are supposed to conform to these rituals, participating cheerfully and parroting back official slogans. This behavior is known in Chinese as biaotai, “declaring where one stands,” but it is little more than an act of symbolic compliance.
   
   
   
   
   RELATED READING
   
   
   
   · China’s New Boss
   
   
   
   · Will China Crush the Hong Kong Protests?
   
   
   
   Despite appearances, China’s political system is badly broken, and nobody knows it better than the Communist Party itself. China’s strongman leader,Xi Jinping , is hoping that a crackdown on dissent and corruption will shore up the party’s rule. He is determined to avoid becoming the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, presiding over the party’s collapse. But instead of being the antithesis of Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Xi may well wind up having the same effect. His despotism is severely stressing China’s system and society—and bringing it closer to a breaking point.
   
   
   
   Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business. Few Western experts forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union before it occurred in 1991; the CIA missed it entirely. The downfall of Eastern Europe’s communist states two years earlier was similarly scorned as the wishful thinking of anticommunists—until it happened. The post-Soviet “color revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005, as well as the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, all burst forth unanticipated.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   The Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, the site of pro-democracy demonstrations in 1989. PHOTO: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC/GETTY IMAGES
   
   
   
   China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime’s near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP rule was inevitable. Others were more cautious—myself included. But times change in China, and so must our analyses.
   
   
   
   Advertisement
   
   
   
   The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don’t know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. But until the system begins to unravel in some obvious way, those inside of it will play along—thus contributing to the facade of stability.
   
   
   
   Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. A single event is unlikely to trigger a peaceful implosion of the regime. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d’état. With his aggressive anticorruption campaign—a focus of this week’s National People’s Congress—he is overplaying a weak hand and deeply aggravating key party, state, military and commercial constituencies.
   
   
   
   The Chinese have a proverb, waiying, neiruan—hard on the outside, soft on the inside. Mr. Xi is a genuinely tough ruler. He exudes conviction and personal confidence. But this hard personality belies a party and political system that is extremely fragile on the inside.
   
   
   
   Consider five telling indications of the regime’s vulnerability and the party’s systemic weaknesses.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   A military band conductor during the opening session of the National People’s Congress on Thursday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
   
   
   
   First, China’s economic elites have one foot out the door, and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble. In 2014, Shanghai’s Hurun Research Institute, which studies China’s wealthy, found that 64% of the “high net worth individuals” whom it polled—393 millionaires and billionaires—were either emigrating or planning to do so. Rich Chinese are sending their children to study abroad in record numbers (in itself, an indictment of the quality of the Chinese higher-education system).
   
   
   
   Just this week, the Journal reported, federal agents searched several Southern California locations that U.S. authorities allege are linked to “multimillion-dollar birth-tourism businesses that enabled thousands of Chinese women to travel here and return home with infants born as U.S. citizens.” Wealthy Chinese are also buying property abroad at record levels and prices, and they are parking their financial assets overseas, often in well-shielded tax havens and shell companies.
   
   
   
   Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to extradite back to China a large number of alleged financial fugitives living abroad. When a country’s elites—many of them party members—flee in such large numbers, it is a telling sign of lack of confidence in the regime and the country’s future.

[下一页]
blog comments powered by Disqus
blog comments powered by Disqus

©Boxun News Network All Rights Reserved.
所有栏目和文章由作者或专栏管理员整理制作,均不代表博讯立场