百家争鸣
雷声
[主页]->[百家争鸣]->[雷声]->[华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由]
雷声
·列宁真相被揭,俄各阶层震惊和愤怒
·voa:习近平专机惊爆象牙走私,有何背景?
·法治的主要任务不是治官
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·中国在中日斗争中昏招连连无一胜绩
·彭定康忧香港出现伊朗式民主(即假普选)
·章小舟:基于“民意分类”视角观察“习氏反腐”等现象
·恢复国民党的反对党精神/陈永苗
·李克强接见12家草根组织负责人
·香港占中升级为南韩模​式/谢选骏
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·镇压学生运动的人都没好下场
·绝食学生促特首重启政改展开对话
·反腐变围剿政敌,廉政排名下降
·绝食学生黄之锋母亲的公开信
·反腐变反政敌,廉政排名下降
·这些红军将士干下什么伤天害理之事
·周永康涉泄密习近平家族财富
·周永康泄密温家宝习近平财富
·谢选骏:新母系社会的诞生——伊斯兰国扩张的西方内助
·周永康泄露了习近平等的财产
·幸好我们还在,不然死无对证了/邓晓芒
·美国就周永康案警告中国:不能政治化
·揭弊vs叛徒:周永康是叛徒吗?/乔木
·王立军没称为叛徒,周永康叛徒依据何在?
·美国就周永康案警告中国:不能政治化
·二战中最惨烈的首都保卫战
·龙灿:中共,你们哪来的资格纪念南京大屠杀?
·没收刘铁男合法财产有违反宪法的重大嫌疑/刘大生
·习近平派中纪委进驻人大与袁世凯包围国会有得一拼
·未普:2014,习近平走在极权路上/张伟国
·陈永苗:民间主体性在民国当归中重建
·陈永苗:民间主体性在民国当归中重建
·沙果平:炮制低俗“神曲”,掀起新造神运动
·沙果平:炮制低俗“神曲”,掀起新造神运动
·沙果平:炮制低俗“神曲”,掀起新造神运动
·谢盛友:东德共产党带来的新思考
·谢盛友:东德共产党带来的新思考
·凯珞:香港从不缺机会,只是机会从不属于我们
·中国清廉排名下降意味着什么?
·中国清廉排名下降意味着什么?
·张鹤慈:有关失独,计生,独生子女政策的讨论
·毛贼诞121周年:最大的国贼!
·学习犹太人,追杀文革刽子手
·蒋公并没喊毛贼万岁
·青天白日满地红国旗飘扬双橡园
·从东北衰落看京津冀一体化/童大焕
·江青两小时法庭陈词曝光
·我敬重王,但对现行反腐败运动已无任何兴趣
· 大陆人从小生活在谎言欺骗之中
·中缅泰老边境的六万国军后代及现状
·政治局要杀江青,陈云坚决反对有何内幕?
·叶匡政:大陆何时能了解一个真实的蒋介石
·陈永苗:80后90后是民国当归的主力军
·郑义:希拉里如何“惹火了所有中国人”
·列宁一战当德奸,已编入教材
·特供奶牛竟然吃进口美国草?
·何清涟:北京为解决财政危机找到方案
·6岁哥哥新年许愿:希望回到没有妹妹的时候
·蒋中正:一个真正的民族英雄
·王维洛:刘铁男和西藏水电大开发
·5事表明 普京帮奥巴马对中国下狠手
·史无前例的大汉奸毛泽东/高鹏飞
·邓小平对江泽民的秘密交待
·探寻1959年河南商城“死绝村”
·天灵盖上一枪,村村见血土改
·雷锋骗子现原形
·重提阶级斗争有违法治/徐友渔
·鲜为人知,周恩来在“一打三反”中的凶狠手段
·湖南新型寡妇村:男人因癌死
·湖南新型寡妇村:男人因癌死
·湖南新型寡妇村:男人因癌死
·为地主正名/应克复
·从普世文明看一党专政的反文明行径/向宪诤
·中共打赢内战之真相解密
·何清涟:反节育派逗你玩:低生育率造成中国劳动力危机
·从来佞幸覆乾坤(下)——拥毛派所思所为/茆家升
·触目惊心的特权政治/胡星斗
·日本小姐性病,怪罪中国游客
·五十年代政治运动揭示残忍史实
·北京人均水资源不足能构成南水北调中线工程的依据吗?
·惊天变局:中国衰落,世界繁荣
·袁贵仁接旨,赐歪脖子大树一棵
·民主政治:民国国会非橡皮图章
·饿死4千万,大跃进毛版中国梦
·前苏联援华专家组负责人谈高岗事件
·曲啸在美国演讲遭遇毁灭性提问,心理崩溃!
·绝不允许子孙后代再经历这样的痛苦/刘源
·红军〝长征〞途中的大屠杀
·警惕文革错误再度发生/南开校长
·醒醒吧,不要为抓了几个贪官而欢呼!/崔永元
·从卫星拍2张地图吓坏中国人
·从卫星拍2张地图吓坏中国人
·印度欣喜若狂 向往“中国式增长”
·建议中高层干部子女出国留学
·中央看望老同志,郭伯雄露面
·潘汉年的传说
·中国大饥荒三个惊人新发现
·崇祯本可不上吊:是谁把他逼上煤山
[列出本栏目所有内容]
欢迎在此做广告
华尔街日报:共产党即将崩暌的五大理由

转贴者按语:最近外媒开始热议中国崩溃的问题。对此,魏京生表示:“未来中国的政治竞争,就在于争夺民心;就在于谁能表现出真正走向民主,而不是拿民主的口号忽悠人。”
   
   
   
   

   《华尔街日报》:共产党即将分崩离析的五大理由
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   美國喬治華盛頓大學國際事務學院教授、中國政策研究項目主任沈大偉(David Shambaugh),今日在《華爾街日報》撰文,表示中國國家主席習近平極力阻止自己成為中國的戈爾巴喬夫,讓中國像蘇聯一樣解體。然而,習近平執意集大權於一身,反而讓共產黨一步步邁向分崩離析。
   
   
   
   沈大偉承認,過往估計中國共產黨必將倒台的「中國通」們,都因為他們的失算影響他們的學術聲譽。然而,他現在確信中國共產黨的「終局」(endgame)已經展開。他不知道結局會是如何,但有可能相當混亂與暴力,亦不排除習近平會在政治鬥爭或軍事政變中下台。習近平現在的「反腐工作」帶有攻擊性,是這個外強中乾的政黨所不能承受的。
   
   
   
   他表示,中共政權最少有五大結構弱點。首先,中國的經濟精英們已經至少把他們的一隻腳伸到中國門外,只要中國一崩潰便能馬上離開。他引述上海胡潤研究中心的調查,有64%的中國富人已經移民或正計劃移民,並正大肆在海外產子、購買資產。另一方面,絕大部分的富人,都把他們的子女送到外國讀書。這些富人根本對中國的未來沒有信心。
   
   
   
   第二,習近平自上任以來一直加強對媒體、網絡、電影、藝術、宗教及少數民族等的箝制。中央政府更向各大院校頒下了所謂「七不講」指引,不能在校園內談論西方的普世價值,包括憲政民主、公民社會及新聞自由等。沈大偉認為一個穩定而有信心的政府,不會作出如此嚴厲的鎮壓,這些政策是政權內心深處虛怯不安的病徵。
   
   
   
   第三,他認為中共的教條式口號、「黨八股」已經完全失去號召力。他上年夏天出席了一個附屬於共產黨的中國智庫會議會議探討什麼是習近平提出的「中國夢」。然而,他形容連這些政黨學者都表現出目無表情、毫無興趣,沉悶非常。另一方面,習近平的著作在大學書店即使是免費贈送亦乏人問津,可見人民對黨理念再無幻想。
   
   
   
   第四,習近平的打貪縱使雷厲風行,卻沒有針對一黨專政、朋黨網絡、欠缺透明、法治及媒體監察這些貪腐的真正根源。因此,打貪只是政治鬥爭的工具,大部分都是針對黨內大老前、國家主席江澤民的門生及盟友。然而,習近平本人在黨內卻不見有忠實的盟友。
   
   
   
   最後,中國的經濟前景未容樂觀,而對國家企業的改革將牽涉大量利益衝突,舉步維艱,令中國難以真正轉型為有創意、能發展高科技的知識型經濟。以上這些問題,全部都需要政治改革才能解決,包括放鬆政治控制。如果習近平在這個亟需改革的情況下一意孤行,他們恐怕將需面對他們極力迴避的結局。
   
   
   
   對於有人認為習近平在靖內難後將變得開放,沈大偉對此不敢苟同。他認為習近平視政治為「零和遊戲」,認為放寬政治管制就是向敵人讓了一步,就是對黨的打擊。這一點,從中國處處暗示美國正積極推翻共產黨便可見一斑,毫無證據顯示改革就近在咫尺。
   
   
   
   The Coming Chinese Crackup
   
   
   
   The endgame of communist rule in China has begun, and Xi Jinping’s ruthless measures are only bringing the country closer to a breaking point
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   Chinese President Xi Jinping, front center, and other Chinese leaders attend the opening meeting on Thursday of the third session of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
   
   
   
   By
   
   
   
   DAVID SHAMBAUGH
   
   
   
   March 6, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
   
   
   
   245 COMMENTS
   
   
   
   On Thursday, the National People’s Congress convened in Beijing in what has become a familiar annual ritual. Some 3,000 “elected” delegates from all over the country—ranging from colorfully clad ethnic minorities to urbane billionaires—will meet for a week to discuss the state of the nation and to engage in the pretense of political participation.
   
   
   
   Some see this impressive gathering as a sign of the strength of the Chinese political system—but it masks serious weaknesses. Chinese politics has always had a theatrical veneer, with staged events like the congress intended to project the power and stability of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. Officials and citizens alike know that they are supposed to conform to these rituals, participating cheerfully and parroting back official slogans. This behavior is known in Chinese as biaotai, “declaring where one stands,” but it is little more than an act of symbolic compliance.
   
   
   
   
   RELATED READING
   
   
   
   · China’s New Boss
   
   
   
   · Will China Crush the Hong Kong Protests?
   
   
   
   Despite appearances, China’s political system is badly broken, and nobody knows it better than the Communist Party itself. China’s strongman leader,Xi Jinping , is hoping that a crackdown on dissent and corruption will shore up the party’s rule. He is determined to avoid becoming the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, presiding over the party’s collapse. But instead of being the antithesis of Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Xi may well wind up having the same effect. His despotism is severely stressing China’s system and society—and bringing it closer to a breaking point.
   
   
   
   Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business. Few Western experts forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union before it occurred in 1991; the CIA missed it entirely. The downfall of Eastern Europe’s communist states two years earlier was similarly scorned as the wishful thinking of anticommunists—until it happened. The post-Soviet “color revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005, as well as the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, all burst forth unanticipated.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   The Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, the site of pro-democracy demonstrations in 1989. PHOTO: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC/GETTY IMAGES
   
   
   
   China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime’s near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP rule was inevitable. Others were more cautious—myself included. But times change in China, and so must our analyses.
   
   
   
   Advertisement
   
   
   
   The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don’t know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. But until the system begins to unravel in some obvious way, those inside of it will play along—thus contributing to the facade of stability.
   
   
   
   Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. A single event is unlikely to trigger a peaceful implosion of the regime. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d’état. With his aggressive anticorruption campaign—a focus of this week’s National People’s Congress—he is overplaying a weak hand and deeply aggravating key party, state, military and commercial constituencies.
   
   
   
   The Chinese have a proverb, waiying, neiruan—hard on the outside, soft on the inside. Mr. Xi is a genuinely tough ruler. He exudes conviction and personal confidence. But this hard personality belies a party and political system that is extremely fragile on the inside.
   
   
   
   Consider five telling indications of the regime’s vulnerability and the party’s systemic weaknesses.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ENLARGE
   
   
   
   A military band conductor during the opening session of the National People’s Congress on Thursday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
   
   
   
   First, China’s economic elites have one foot out the door, and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble. In 2014, Shanghai’s Hurun Research Institute, which studies China’s wealthy, found that 64% of the “high net worth individuals” whom it polled—393 millionaires and billionaires—were either emigrating or planning to do so. Rich Chinese are sending their children to study abroad in record numbers (in itself, an indictment of the quality of the Chinese higher-education system).
   
   
   
   Just this week, the Journal reported, federal agents searched several Southern California locations that U.S. authorities allege are linked to “multimillion-dollar birth-tourism businesses that enabled thousands of Chinese women to travel here and return home with infants born as U.S. citizens.” Wealthy Chinese are also buying property abroad at record levels and prices, and they are parking their financial assets overseas, often in well-shielded tax havens and shell companies.
   
   
   
   Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to extradite back to China a large number of alleged financial fugitives living abroad. When a country’s elites—many of them party members—flee in such large numbers, it is a telling sign of lack of confidence in the regime and the country’s future.

[下一页]
blog comments powered by Disqus
blog comments powered by Disqus

©Boxun News Network All Rights Reserved.
所有栏目和文章由作者或专栏管理员整理制作,均不代表博讯立场