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香港民主示威对习近平构成挑战

分析
   来源:纽约时报中文网
   
   
   

   Hong Kong Protests Present a Challenge to Xi Jinping’s Rule
   
   By EDWARD WONG and CHRIS BUCKLEY September 30, 2014
   
   
   分析
   
   香港民主示威對習近平構成挑戰
   
   黃安偉, 儲百亮 2014年09月30日
   
   
   
   BEIJING — China’s Communist Party has ample experience extinguishing unrest. For years it has used a deft mix of censorship, arrests, armed force and, increasingly, money, to repress or soften calls for political change.
   
   
   北京——中國共產黨平息騷亂的經驗豐富。多年來,它嫻熟地綜合利用言論審查、逮捕、武裝力量,並越來越多地通過金錢,來壓制或緩和政治改革的呼聲。
   
   
   
   But as he faces swelling street demonstrations in Hong Kong pressing for more democracy in the territory, the toolbox of President Xi Jinping of China appears remarkably empty.
   
   
   然而,面對香港街頭日漸壯大的示威陣勢,中國國家主席習近平能拿出的工具似乎相當匱乏。這些抗議活動的訴求,是要在香港的土地上實行更多民主。
   
   
   
   Hong Kong is already a mature, prosperous enclave that has grown relatively immune to the blandishments of mutual prosperity that helped keep it stable during 16 years of Chinese rule. And as a former British colony with its own laws and traditions of liberty, a severe crackdown on mostly peaceful protests would almost certainty backfire here, especially under the glare of international attention.
   
   
   
   “On the mainland, as long as you can control the streets with enough soldiers and guns, you can kill a protest, because everywhere else is already controlled: the press, the Internet, the schools, every neighborhood and every community,” said Xiao Shu, a mainland writer who is a visiting scholar at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. “In Hong Kong, the streets are not the only battlefield, like on the mainland.”
   
   
   「在大陸,只要能用足夠多的軍人和武器控制住街道,就能扼殺抗議,因為其他地方都已經被控制了:媒體、互聯網、學校、每塊地方和每個社區,」在台灣國立政治大學做訪問學者的大陸作家笑蜀說。「在香港,不像大陸,街頭並非唯一的戰場。」
   
   
   
   The protests, in which demonstrators defied a police crackdown on Monday and took over a vast swath of the business districts of the city, have become an epic standoff that Mr. Xi has few obvious ways of defusing.
   
   
   在香港的抗議活動中,示威者不顧警方的鎮壓,周一佔領了商務區的一大片地方。這場抗議已經演變為大規模的對峙,而習近平幾乎沒有可以化解的簡易辦法。
   
   
   
   Hong Kong has been under Beijing’s sovereignty for long enough now that even modest concessions could send signals across the border that mass protests bring results — a hint of weakness that Mr. Xi seems determined to avoid, mainland analysts say.
   
   
   大陸的分析人士稱,香港主權回歸中國的年頭,如今已經較為長久了,因而即便是小小的讓步,也可能會向口岸另一邊發出「大規模抗議會有所收穫」的信號——習近平似乎決意避免這種軟弱的跡象。
   
   
   
   Yet any attempt to remove protesters by force would inevitably raise parallels with the killing of democracy protesters in Beijing in 1989, an event that split the Communist Party and poisoned China’s relations with the outside world for years.
   
   
   然而,動用武力驅散抗議者的任何嘗試,都不可避免地會引起與1989年北京的民主抗議人士遭屠戮的類比。當時的事件導致共產黨內部發生分化,並在接下來的多年時間裡影響了中國與外界的關係。
   
   
   
   Hong Kong’s future, therefore, may rest heavily on whether Mr. Xi has the clout, skill and vision to figure out a solution that keeps the territory stable without sparking copycat calls for change closer to home.
   
   
   因此,香港的未來或許在很大程度上取決於習近平是否有拿出一套合適解決方案的實力、技巧和視野。這套方案需要既能讓香港保持穩定,又不會讓離北京更近的地方出現仿效香港的改革呼聲。
   
   
   
   “This is already much bigger than anything the Beijing or Hong Kong authorities expected,” said Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University who studies democratic development. “They have no strategy for peacefully defusing it, because that would require negotiations, and I don’t think President Xi Jinping will allow that. Now, if he yields, he will look weak, something he clearly detests.”
   
   
   「這已經遠遠超出了北京或香港當局預想的規模,」斯坦福大學胡佛研究所(Hoover Institution at Stanford University)研究民主發展的高級研究員拉里·戴蒙德(Larry Diamond)說。「他們沒有和平化解此事的策略,因為那需要進行談判,而我認為習近平主席不會允許那麼做。現在,如果讓步,他就會給人軟弱的感覺,他顯然很不喜歡這樣。」
   
   
   
   Mr. Xi’s record so far — unyielding opposition to political liberalization and public protests has been a hallmark of his rule — has suggested a politician who abhors making concessions. He has fashioned himself into a strongman unseen in China since the days of Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong, and few if any party insiders and political analysts expect him to give serious consideration to the demands for full democratic elections in Hong Kong.
   
   
   迄今為止,習近平的表現——堅決反對政治自由化和公眾抗議已經成為其統治的一項標誌——表明,他討厭做出讓步。他把自己塑造成了一個強人,一個毛澤東和鄧小平時代過後,中國未曾出現過的那種強人。即使有,也只是極少數的黨內人士和政治分析人士預計,他會認真考慮在香港實行充分民主選舉的訴求。
   
   
   
   In fact, his strongman style may have helped create the crisis.
   
   
   事實上,他的強人風格或許正是這場危機的誘因之一。
   
   
   
   The protesters are demanding open elections for Hong Kong’s leader, the chief executive. China has agreed to allow the position to be elected by popular vote starting in 2017.
   
   
   抗議者要求公開選舉香港的最高領導人——行政長官。中國已經同意從2017年開始,允許對該職位進行普選。
   
   
   
   But China’s rubber-stamp Legislature last month rejected any change in election rules that would open the race to candidates not vetted by a committee that is heavily pro-Beijing. And while there still may have been room for compromise, Mr. Xi met with business leaders from Hong Kong in a closed-door session in Beijing last week to reiterate that the party will not allow political change in Hong Kong, the former British colony of 7.2 million people.
   
   
   但上月,中國的橡皮圖章立法機構排除了對選舉條例進行任何開放競選改革的可能性,不允許未經一個高度親北京的委員會篩選的候選人參選。此外,儘管目前或許依然有妥協的空間,但習近平上周與來自香港的商業領袖舉行閉門會晤,期間重申中共不會允許有720萬人口的前英國殖民地香港進行政治改革。
   
   
   
   “If he had negotiated from a position of strength,” Mr. Diamond said, “and pursued a strategy of delivering ‘gradual and orderly progress’ toward democracy in Hong Kong, albeit at a more incremental timetable than democrats were hoping for, he could have pre-empted this storm.”
   
   
   「假如他在握有優勢的時候進行了談判,」戴蒙德說,「推行在香港實現『漸進有序』的民主進步的策略,哪怕是遵循比民主派所希望的更漸進的時間表,他應該已經預先阻止了這場風暴。」
   
   
   
   Instead, Beijing has only hardened its position. On Monday evening, a commentary on the website of People’s Daily, the party’s main newspaper, claimed the upheavals in Hong Kong were instigated by democratic radicals who had sought support from “anti-China forces” in Britain and the United States and had sought lessons from independent activists in Taiwan. It called them a “gang of people whose hearts belong to colonial rule and who are besotted with ‘Western democracy.’ ”
   
   
   然而,北京方面一味強化立場。周一晚間,黨報《人民日報》在其網站發表評論文章稱,香港的動蕩,是由赴英美尋求境外「反華勢力」支持、向台獨學運分子學習抗爭經驗的民主激進分子煽動裹挾的。文中稱他們是「一群心系殖民統治、醉心『西方民主』的人。」
   
   
   
   Such harsh words might, in the context of a mainland Chinese protest, point to an imminent use of major force on the part of officials, followed by arrests, show trials and long prison sentences.
   
   
   如果是中國內地爆發的抗議活動,這樣嚴厲的措辭或許意味着官方即將下令動用武力,然後就是逮捕、審判秀及長期監禁的處罰。
   
   
   
   But it is doubtful that that is a viable option in Hong Kong. Given the size of the crowd now in the city’s streets, perhaps only the use of force on the level of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre would suppress the protests, absent any political solution. Such bloodshed would greatly damage the party’s legitimacy and jeopardize the city’s standing as a global financial center.

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